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NIGERIA Decides How states will vote:



Nigerians go to the polls today to elect a president to serve for the next four years. The two major contenders are Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress, APC and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP.


It is a battle that is going to be fought in the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, FCT with gladiators and political actors bringing every act in the arsenal to outsmart one another in arguably the most contentious election in Nigeria’s history.



The South-East has, since 1999, proved to be a stronghold of the PDP. Even though APGA and APC have been able to make incursions into Anambra and Imo states, they have not much diminished PDP’s fortunes in the zone.
In Enugu State, except for 1999 when the defunct All Peoples Party, APP, won one House of Representatives seat and one state House of Assembly seat, which the Alliance for Democracy won two Senate seats,  PDP has always cleared all elections in the state.
It, therefore, follows that PDP, which is  the  ruling party in the state, is expected to have majority of the 1.9 million registered voters in the state, both in the presidential/National Assembly elections and in the governorship/ state House of Assembly elections.
The APC has, in an attempt to rewrite political history in the state, mounted vigorous campaigns, precisely for Buhari which, no doubt, has paid off as more people have joined the party in the state compared to what obtained in the 2015 elections.
Reasons for defections into the APC are obvious. As the federal ruling party, people believe that it has appointments to share and could use its power of incumbency to make candidates win elections.
The defector got some board and presidential campaign council appointments including a former Senate President, Chief Ken Nnamani, who made the campaign council list. But even the few appointments became an albatross for the party as allocations of the party dividends divided party members in Enugu.
APC in the state is currently divided into two factions even though both groups campaigned for Buhari’s re-election bid.
In addition, there are pro-Buhari groups such as the Buhari Support Organization, BSO, and the Zikist-Buhari-Movement initiated by the Director General of Voice of Nigeria, Mr. Osita Okechukwu.
On the other hand the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku, is receiving good support in the state particularly with his choice of Peter Obi, from the South-East, as his running mate. Enugu people are also queuing into the Ohanaeze Ndigbo’s endorsement of the PDP candidate based on his restructuring pledge.
Atiku, at his campaign rally in Enugu, said that the Igbo will move from vice presidency to presidency after his tenure. His soothing words for Ndigbo are in contrast to Buhari’s, who, at his campaign rally in Enugu told Ndigbo that the reason they do not have many political appointments, particularly in the headship of the security services, was that his appointments were based on merit.
Buhari secured about 22,000 votes from Enugu in the 2015 elections but those interviewed doubted if he will secure as much in 2019.

After initial doubts as to the inclination of Governor Dave Umahi, he has like the two other PDP governors in the Southeast come out vigorously to support the party’s presidential candidate, Atiku.
The support for the PDP presidential candidate has been described by political analysts as total and unprecedented in Ebonyi.
In 2015, Buhari lost the requisite votes he needed to win in the state while it is believed that with the former VP in the Saturday election, the sitting President might secure fewer votes this time.
It is no longer news that the PDP South-East governors are backing their party’s presidential candidate in their respective states and would do their best to ensure his emergence. This support is evident as Ebonyi Governor Dave Umahi began campaigns for Atiku’s election against insinuations in some quarters.
Similarly, candidates for the National Assembly elections are positioning themselves for votes in the state.
This they are doing by taking their campaigns to the nook and cranny  of Ebonyi.
They are PDP candidates for Ebonyi North, Senator Samuel Ominyi Egwu (incumbent), Sen. Obinna Joseph Ogba, Ebonyi Central (incumbent, PDP), Sen. Julius Ucha, Ebonyi Central (incumbent, APC), Chief Michael Amah, Ebonyi South (PDP), and Prince Nweze Onu, Ebonyi South, (APC).
House of Representatives’ nominees include Hon. Lazarus Ogbee, Ikwo/Ezza South Fed. Constituency (PDP), Comrade Chinedu Ogah, Ikwo/Ezza South Federal Constituency (APC), Hon Anayo Edwin Nwonu, Ezza North/Ishielu Federal Constituency (PDP) and Hon Chukwuma Nwazunku, Ebonyi/Ohaukwu Federal Constituency (PDP).
Others include Hon Peter Ogeali, Ebonyi/Ohaukwu Federal Constituency (APC), Hon. Sylvester Ogbaga, Abakaliki/Izzi Federal Constituency (PDP), Hon. Iduma Igariwey, Afikpo North/Afikpo South Federal Constituency (PDP), Hon. Anthony Ekoh Jr, Afikpo North/Afikpo South Federal Constituency (PDP) and Chief Livinus Makwe, Ohaozara/Onicha/Ivo Federal Constituency (PDP).
The candidate of the PDP for Afikpo North and South Federal Constituency, Igariwey, had, in a suit at present before the Federal High Court sitting in Abakaliki, challenged the academic credentials of his APC counterpart, Ekoh Jnr.
The APC candidate, a pharmacist, described the suit as laughable and inglorious.

THERE is confusion among the  electorate in  Anambra electorate over who to support between Buhari and Atiku Abubakar in the February 16 presidential election.
Although Anambra is controlled by the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, which also has a presidential candidate in the person of Major General John Gbor (ret.), the political equation in the state changed the moment the immediate past governor of the state, Mr. Obi, was nominated the vice presidential candidate of the PDP.
Obi is loved by the people of Anambra because of his performance as governor of the state for eight years and his entry as the running mate to Atiku shifted support from APGA to PDP for the presidential election.

It is therefore common to hear the people publicly say that they will vote for PDP for the presidential election and APGA for other elections.
Apparently sensing that a PDP presidency might cause a lot of problem for his administration, Governor Willie Obiano’s body language began to tilt support towards Buhari for the presidential election.
For instance, the swiftness with which the state government condemned the recent endorsement of Atiku-Obi ticket by Ohaneze Ndigbo showed how worried it was by the development.
The fear among state government functionaries is that should PDP win the presidential election, the feud between Obi and Obiano would manifest more significantly from 2019.
There is also the fear in the Obiano camp that should PDP win on February 16, there would be the likelihood of a bandwagon effect during the governorship and House of Assembly elections, with the possibility of APGA not having the majority in the House to support Obiano who still has three years to go as governor.
From the way the campaign is going, the battle in Anambra is between the PDP and APGA, with the possibility of Buhari scoring 25% in the state because of Obiano’s subtle support for the APC.
Sensing the danger ahead, the governor has been asking the people to vote for APGA in all the elections to avoid a situation whereby voting for PDP for President and voting for APGA in other elections would cause more confusion.
Anambra, it must be noted, does not join the bandwagon during elections and that is why APGA has consistently been in charge in the state even when the neighbouring states are controlled by the PDP.

THE battle between the APC and the PDP in Nasarawa is driven  by  ethnicity.
And the fight between the two major parties is a straight one as the two presidential candidates are popular in the state.
Elections in Nasarawa are based essentially on tribal and religious sentiments and such sentiments are always difficult to change, although Governor Al-Makura appears to be breaking the jinx of ethnic politics in the state.


Before now, the general approach to politics in Nasarawa  was  to promote ethnic sentiments in making preference irrespective of merit.
This is because the Alago and Eggon, who are the majority tribes and predominantly populated by Christians, always influenced election results. In the 2019 presidential poll, the power of incumbency may, however, determine the outcome in Nasarawa.
PDP won  at all levels  from  1999 until the victory of Al-Makura in 2011 on the platform of the  then-CPC which is seemingly changing the political dynamics of the state.

To say that Imo State is definitely going to be the flashpoint in this year’s general elections amounts to stating the obvious.
Although several reasons point to this fact, the major reason, however, remains Governor Rochas Okorocha’s insistence on enthroning his son in-law, Uche Nwosu, as his successor.
The resultant upheaval within the ruling APC, occasioned by this ambition, ultimately led to not only the birth of the Imerienwe Declaration, but also the emergence of parallel executives at all levels.
Very careful political watchers in Imo believe that the implosion in APC will ultimately affect the fortunes of Buhari in the February 16 elections.
Hope  Uzodinma  who emerged as the APC governorship flag bearer  has not ceased to call on the citizenry to vote for Buhari, himself for governor and other APC candidates.
The confusion in the state chapter of the APC is expected to pose a serious challenge to the presidential campaign as Okorocha and the tendency aligned to Uzodinma otherwise known as the Allied Forces could work at cross purposes.
Imo was won by the PDP in 2015 and given the sentiments about the APC’s approach towards the Igbo, the power of incumbency the party has in the state could have helped to advance the party, but the internal discord in the party makes an APC victory in the state a remote possibility.

By Emma Amaize, South-South Editor, Sam Oyadongha (Yenagoa), Jimitota Onoyume, Asst News Editor (Warri), Festus Ahon (Asaba), Gabriel Enogholase (Benin City),   Egufe Yafugborhi, Davies Iheamnachor (Port Harcourt),   Emmanuel Unah, Ike Uchechukwu (Calabar), Harris-Okon Emmanuel, Chioma Onuegbu (Uyo), Emem Idio (Yenagoa) and Aliu Ozioruva-Alemma (Benin-City)
WITH the presidential election holding today,  the political pulse is vivacious in the South-South states, as the political parties battle to outfox themselves in the region that is, conventionally, a stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
It is not likely that the All Progressives Congress (APC) will turn the tide for President Muhammadu Buhari in the oil-rich region, but the margin of loss could be narrowed. In Edo, the home state of  Comrade Adams Oshiomhole,  the National Chairman of the party, governorship election will not hold, this year, but the people  seem not to have been  persuaded by the ‘Change’ mantra.
In Cross Rivers,  the perception that  the Chief Justice of Nigeria, CJN, Justice Walter Onnoghen, who is from the state,  is being persecuted  will work against Buhari but the action, if truth be told, is more on the governorship election, where politicians have embarked on forceful campaigns and supporters gone violent in the hunt for votes.
In Rivers State, the judiciary is likely to settle scores among the unbending politicians in the governorship race, while in Delta State, the temperament is breathtaking with Governor Ifeanyi Okowa doing all he can to shake-off his sturdy challenger, Chief Great Ogboru. Bayelsa State is exceptionally calm because, of course, governorship election will not hold in the state, this year, and in Akwa Ibom, where former governor, Obong Godswill Akpabio, wants to “overthrow” the incumbent, Governor Udom Emmanuel, the parties have re-appraised their game plan.

As at press time the fervor within the camp of the APC in Rivers State continues to surprise outsiders. Despite the judicial decision stopping the party from presenting candidates for all elective positions in the state including governorship, enthusiasm for the party by its adherents in the state has not measurably dropped.
An indication of this was the surprise turnout of party supporters who attended the presidential campaign rally earlier this week.
As at yesterday the APC was threatening that it would not allow the election to hold if it is not listed for the National Assembly elections holding today.
If the party is not listed the odds against Buhari in the main election would have been compounded as many party supporters who would have come out to vote in the Senate and House of Representatives contests will not come out with the claim that Buhari is still far from them.
It is a state that the PDP is safe to win.
DELTA: Political mood stimulating 2015 Winner: PDP
The campaign fervor in Delta State is amid the politicians, not really among the electorate, many of who are hungry and unemployed. However, the two main parties in the state, PDP and APC, have charged the atmosphere with their struggle for votes.
Undoubtedly, the political atmosphere is charged, as the incumbent governor, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, who has had an electrifying campaign, and other candidates of the various political parties intensify their campaigns.
Buhari’s main prop in Delta State is the aspiration of Chief Great Ogboru and the APC Delta Central Senatorial candidate, Senator Ovie Omo-Agege.
The energy from the campaigns of the two candidates is rubbing off positively on Buhari’s second term aspiration. However, but whether that would be enough to enable the president win the state is another story.

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